Bill Tallen

Last time I promised a discussion of why we ought to be paying attention to Iran. There’s a lot more happening on the world stage right now, but for this one, it’s time to get ready.

Iran is an Islamic theocracy, ruled by religious leaders who aspire to the heights of late seventh century civilization when Islam was expansionist and triumphant. Iran is the self-appointed leader of the Shi’a branch of Islam, and its leaders routinely call for the destruction of Israel and the United States (the Lesser and Greater Satans in their world view), with chilling specifics. When questioned years ago about their implacable hatred of Israel, given that Israel’s nuclear arsenal puts a new twist on the biblical tale of Samson pulling down the temple, a former Iranian president calmly replied that they would accept 40 million casualties as the price for destroying Israel on behalf of world Islam. Iran is an honor-based society, so we have to accept and discount a certain amount of brag, threat and bluster; but these threats have been consistently repeated for decades. Now they are on the cusp of deploying their own nuclear weapons, and realizing their dream; and that dream involves us as well.

Years ago, our satellites recorded Iranian tests of ballistic missiles launched from the cargo holds of freighters (which immediately sank when their hulls were burned through), something that has no conceivable application unless you are planning a bolt-out-of-the-blue EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack on the Greater Satan (us), which is half a world away surrounded by oceans. A nation-destroying EMP attack on us would require only two or three small nuclear warheads, launched without warning from close offshore and detonated at very high altitudes over North America. The resulting propagation of intense electromagnetic fields — discovered during atmospheric nuclear testing in the 1950s and 1960s — would cripple our electrical grid and almost all electronic devices, resulting in (according to a Congressional committee report in 2017) the deaths of up to 90% of Americans in the first year due to the collapse of critical infrastructure and societal systems. Trucks won’t roll, tractors won’t start, pumps won’t pump, and the power’s out for good — you get the picture.

It’s a starkly simpler prospect for Israel, where two or three nukes could kill or cripple most of its population quickly and directly. The Iranian ballistic missile strikes last year, that we all laughed at, were test runs for this. If they launch another 200 missiles at Israel, and the Israelis shoot down all but two or three that are nuclear-tipped, Israel is done.  Samson would tear down the temple in his death throes — Israel’s nuclear retaliation would be devastating — but Iran has already said, so what? You die; we win. How do you negotiate with, or trust, declared enemies that talk like that?

If you are inclined to malign Trump’s administration, given his promise of “no new wars,” for the recent, ongoing military buildup in the Middle East and Indian Ocean, think again. Iran, under its present Islamist regime, is hell-bent on deploying nuclear weapons and cannot be allowed to do so, given its explicit and continuing threats. The enemy always gets a vote, and does not respect your desires or your promises.

In the field of self-defense, we say that an assailant who displays the ability, opportunity and intent to take your life can be shot where he stands. Iran may still lack the ability, by a few weeks at most. But it’s a close thing, intelligence is imperfect, and the margin of error is thin as a knife blade. We might dare to wait, but with their survival at stake, Israel probably will not, and if we leave it to them, it will be worse.

The U.S. alone is capable of destroying the Iranian nuclear complex without using our own nuclear weapons. Fortunately for the Iranian people, their regime’s nuclear facilities are deep underground, which means that their destruction will result in little if any radioactive contamination nearby or downwind. That is, relatively speaking, the easy part.

There would still be two major consequences of even a brief, victorious war on Iran. First, Iran could stop the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf by attacking oil terminals and tankers, and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The worldwide economic impact could be enormous.

Second, Iran has at least 10,000-20,000 armed operatives in the United States, thanks to four years of open borders; that is several times as many killers as attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. These are jihadists who hate us, value death over life, and would, on order, kill infidels until they die. We could expect to see nationwide attacks on civilians and vital infrastructure; but at least they wouldn’t have nukes. 

What a world.