Bill Tallen

The public is suffering from combat fatigue: We’re bored and frustrated. Day to day and week to week, our leaders vacillate between war-making and deal-making. 

Iran pretends to negotiate in good faith but never does. The demands that IRGC hardliners insert into every negotiation, whenever the latest “agreement” slouches toward the finish line, are bizarre. Most recently, Iran and Oman were preparing an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz by sharing control (and toll revenues) between them. Before it could be signed, this latest agreement landed on the trash heap over Iran’s last minute added demands that America must never again threaten or insult Iran, permanently end the war against Iran and Iran's allies in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and Iraq, lift its naval blockade, withdraw all military forces from the region, compensate Iran for war damages, lift all sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds. 

These demands are a new act in the theater of the absurd. If there’s a cultural precedent, it’s the Black Knight scene in "Monty Python and the Holy Grail": “You’ve got no arms left!” “Yes I have … Just a flesh wound.” Iran is on the verge of economic, political and military collapse. Their strategy is to simply hang on by their fingernails and outlast America’s will to continue the fight — but their expectations are misinformed and unrealistic, like Osama Bin Laden’s in 2001. 

Many Americans now call for President Trump to press on toward a decisive military victory that would depose the Iranian regime. He seems to have finally recognized that the enemy does not think like we do and cannot be coaxed toward a mutually beneficial “deal” by a whip in one hand and a treat in the other. It is a zero-sum game. As Hemingway said, “Once we have a war, there is only one thing to do. It must be won. For defeat brings worse things than any that can ever happen in war.”

Ceasefires in this conflict have only been pauses to reload; fortunately, Iran’s ability to rearm and reload is crippled. In 2024, 2025, and in the first six weeks of this year’s war, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel in waves of a hundred or more each. Unclassified assessments now agree that Iran’s remaining missiles are less than 10% of its inventory in February of this year, their manufacturing capacity is almost completely destroyed, and the U.S. naval blockade is a barrier to shipments of weapons that they can no longer pay for, from allies that are deserting them. The best they can do now is signal continued belligerence by launching one or a few missiles at a time at a Muslim neighbor — but none at Israel, which has made a credible threat of retaliatory destruction of what remains of Iranian leadership. This behavior tells us all we really need to know about Iran’s residual military strength. Reported shortages in American munitions are far less significant; with unchallenged air supremacy, even dumb bombs can be delivered at will, and as Sun Tzu pointed out, “Invincibility lies in the defense; the possibility of victory in the attack.”

The balance of power in this war is now weighted heavily against Iran. Our coalition of Arab allies has been strengthened, not weakened, by continuing sporadic Iranian attacks against them, and global consumers of Middle Eastern oil, primarily Europe and China, are showing mounting impatience with Iran’s “Black Knight” antics. Israel ceased direct action against Iran in June during the negotiation of the now-discarded MOU but has massive military potential and is clearly prepared to resume its active role.

I have always doubted our ability to bring this war to a decisive end — which will require the collapse and replacement of Iran’s theocratic, terroristic regime — by an air campaign only. No war since the beginning of manned flight has been won by air power alone. President Trump committed at the outset to “no boots on the ground” and that promise limits his options. However, there is another path to victory, and we are far down that path already. 

Iran’s economy is under sustained assault, not by air strikes, but by Secretary Bessent’s U.S. Treasury Department, and by the U.S. naval blockade that is costing Iran’s tottering regime nearly 500 million dollars a day. Their inflation rate is over 90% and increasing. All of their critical infrastructure — bridges, road, rail, electricity generation — is exposed and essentially undefended. 

Soon, the Black Knight will not have a leg left to stand on. They can’t pay their proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis). They can’t pay their troops. The collapsing economy will alienate the last segment of popular support for the regime. Kurds in northwestern Iraq have been in open, armed rebellion for months, with support from the U.S. and Israel. Ongoing preparations with other anti-regime factions receive little attention in the Western media. When the time comes, their revolt against the demoralized regime — with close air support overhead — will be the final act. 

The hopes of Iran — and of too many shortsighted Americans — are pinned to the upcoming midterm elections. But history shows that few voters change their minds in midterm elections. Those who hate President Trump and all his policies have done so since 2016. The math says they don’t matter here. What matters is the Republican base which elected Trump in 2024, who only need to get off their couches and vote in November, to retain Republican majorities in both houses of Congress. 

Trump’s 2024 campaign promise to his base was: “no more unending wars.” We know what “unending” means, from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan; six months does not qualify. He did not promise “no more war” and no president will, because enemies have a vote and it only takes one side to make a war. The Islamic Republic of Iran has been making war on us for decades; it will end soon. Have patience and admire the tools and strategy by which we will win it.