Bill Tallen

On April 8, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran agreed to a 14-day cease-fire. Responses differed. Some are so averse to violence that they celebrate even a temporary cessation in any conflict; their love of peace at any price blinds them to the danger of defeat. Others can’t look past their dislike of President Trump, and they either welcome or deride any news according to the sole test of whether it strengthens or weakens him politically. Yet others want this war to end in victory, not in a compromise that settles nothing, kicking the can down the road. Most everyone is confused and unsatisfied.

The terms of the cease-fire were simple: The U.S. agreed to a 14-day cessation of military operations against Iran in return for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. But the Strait has not opened. Shippers and insurers don’t trust Iran not to attack shipping, so except for a handful of Iranian clients who agree to pay them a $1 million toll for each trip through, confidence has not been restored, and few ships are attempting the passage. A definitive announcement by Iran that no attacks on shipping will occur, and that any mines in place have been cleared or deactivated, might or might not be trusted by the flinty-eyed, emotionless insurance actuaries; but none has been provided. At the one-week point, Iran has failed to take any necessary action to open the Strait, and therefore the terms of the cease-fire have not been met. They’d best be keeping an eye on the sky.

What was the purpose of this cease-fire from the American point of view?

First, it is one more attempt to offer the Islamic Republic’s third draft of leaders an off-ramp, a way to submit without the ignominy of unconditional surrender. However, follow-up negotiations in Pakistan have made no progress, because Iran fails to recognize defeat, much like Monty Python’s black knight: “It’s only a flesh wound!” They have simply doubled down on nuclear blackmail, steadily diminishing volleys of drones and missiles at its neighbors, and economic extortion by threats to the flow of oil through the Strait, in an attempt to seize victory from the jaws of defeat. While they are in no position to dictate terms, they reject ours outright, so that even Vice President Vance, our chief negotiator in Islamabad and a skeptic about this war from the start, admits that Iran has not kept the terms of the cease-fire and that the negotiations have achieved nothing. The Trump administration can honestly say it tried. 

Second, the cease-fire serves as an operational pause — a doctrinal term that describes a temporary halt in military operations to allow forces to rest, refit, resupply and adjust plans as necessary. The next round of fighting, if it resumes, will include the return of aircraft carrier U.S.S. Ford after repairs in the Mediterranean, and the possible addition of a third carrier — doubling or tripling naval airpower in the Middle East. One Marine Expeditionary Unit is now on station and another is inbound. Other deployments and significant resupply are also underway.

The final, pivotal factor in the coming conclusion of this war is Iran’s precarious economic condition. Recognizing this, President Trump announced that the U.S. will enforce a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, effective April 13. This is a wartime measure well-defined in international law. When they cannot sell and ship their oil, their war effort and their very survival as a government will quickly come to an end. No Iranian forces are capable of breaking this blockade, and they have no ally willing to enter a state of war against the United States to do so. Blockade was a war-winning strategy of the U.S. and its allies in both world wars of the 20th century, and will be once again.

Despite the president’s hyperbole, which has kept the enemy off balance and everyone else distracted and annoyed, our primary war goals have stayed consistent. These are the elimination of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, the ballistic missile program that goes hand-in-hand with it, and its incitement and support of proxy wars and worldwide terrorism to achieve hegemony in the Middle East and the destruction of Israel and America. The theocrats in Iran have proved unwilling to yield on any of these points. Temporary setbacks have never shaken  their resolve; so tomorrow or the day after, or the day after that, the blockade and other military operations deemed necessary will resume until their government finally collapses, clearing the way for a popular, secular regime that can live among its neighbors in peace. Patience, persistence and resolve will prevail.