Bill Tallen

That’s a quote from the ancient Chinese classic “Tao Te Ching.” It’s especially pertinent to the present state of war, and has been, with sweet irony, well demonstrated by President Trump in his dealings this last week in China.

Observers of the current Middle East conflict have been frustrated over the last two weeks by the indefinitely-extended ceasefire with Iran, whether out of general and uncritical pacifism, opposition to everything President Trump supports, or out of mistrust that Trump will follow through to achieve a final victory. I have no comfort to offer the Trump haters — they’re being outmaneuvered again — or the pacifists who do not understand the adage that “there are worse things than war, and all of them come with defeat.” The remaining critics would be more satisfied if they were watching the timing.

Here’s how that is working. 

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly on May 10 publicly revealed classified information regarding depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles — missiles and bombs expended at a rapid rate between Feb. 28 and the April ceasefire over Iran. Time will tell whether Kelly will be stripped of his rank and pension, expelled from the Senate, prosecuted for a security breach and imprisoned. In the meantime, precise numbers have not been discussed, but the basic thesis has not been refuted. A serious drawdown is one rationale for the extended ceasefire in Iran. We prudently want to maintain a war reserve, against the possibility of hostilities elsewhere (“elsewhere” is a euphemism for China), and while production ramps up to replace the expenditures. 

Another driver for the cease fire has been Trump’s long-scheduled visit to China which took place May 13-15. China has kept a fairly low profile in the Iran war, because it is suffering, and might suffer much more, from the loss of the oil it has long imported from Iran in violation of international sanctions. China’s economy largely depends on that oil, and it has built a close relationship with the Iranian regime in recent years, and has benefited from Iran’s ongoing proxy wars and terrorism that have constituted a major threat and diversion for America. A major part of China’s foreign policy, and the object of its rapid, years-long military buildup, is reunification by any means necessary with the “breakaway province” of Taiwan, a U.S. ally. Behind all the chatter about tech and tariffs, these factors (the Chinese economy, Taiwan, and Iran) constituted the elephant in the room in Beijing last week. 

Reports from the meetings in Beijing include a Chinese assurance that it will withhold military equipment from Iran, will buy oil from the U.S., and wants the Strait of Hormuz open. There are also reports that America will hedge on a major pending arms sale to Taiwan.  If America had resumed attacks on Iran before the Beijing summit, President Xi would have been pressed by his own internal political situation to ramp up military and economic aid to Iran, and to distract the U.S. by turning up the heat on Taiwan while American forces are concentrated in the Middle East and its munition stockpiles are depleted. President Trump spared him, and us, by extending the Iran ceasefire, with only limited and minor clashes in the Strait of Hormuz despite repeated Iranian provocations, past the Beijing summit meeting. 

President Xi recently weathered one coup attempt and still has serious opposition within the Chinese Communist Party. He’s between a rock and hard place, because he is committed to force reunification with Taiwan, but cannot risk open war with the United States, or any war at all while his vital imported oil is choked off by the combination of Iran’s closure of the Strait and the American blockade of Iran’s ports. Any great humiliation or obvious setback could well topple Xi from power. 

What President Trump appears to have accomplished is to give Xi an off-ramp that defuses tensions, addresses China’s overriding concerns that apparently do not include Iran, and saves Xi from a loss of face that could threaten his own leadership. 

And now the next play in the great game, where China has quietly removed its pieces from the board – for the moment. This morning, May 17, saw the beginning of a massive surge of U.S. Air Force tankers and heavy-lift cargo aircraft from American and European bases into the Middle East. It looks like the run-up to Feb. 28 with inbound munitions and fuel reserves that appear to have been released despite the drawdown, because of the absence of any other short-term threat. At this pace, we will be poised within hours or days to resume military action and force the conclusion to this conflict that was never going to be achievable by negotiation with the messianic death cult in Tehran.