Despite claims, Yellowstone National Park volcano probably not ready to blow

Posted 1/6/22

This past July the ground around Yellowstone’s caldera was shaking. Over a short period of time, more than 800 earthquakes hit the area in what is called an earthquake swarm.

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Despite claims, Yellowstone National Park volcano probably not ready to blow

Posted

This past July the ground around Yellowstone’s caldera was shaking. Over a short period of time, more than 800 earthquakes hit the area in what is called an earthquake swarm.

You didn’t notice? Few did. Most of the quakes were barely measurable, though the largest was a 3.7 on the Richter scale, which calculates the magnitude of an earthquake and the amount of energy released. The truth is, a swarm of 800 earthquakes is pretty mild. In 2017, there was a swarm of more than 2,400 earthquakes that lasted for a few months.

“That’s just sort of what Yellowstone does,” said Michael Poland, scientist-in-charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. “I don't know that there's really anything newsworthy about last year.”

But when you say the words earthquake swarm, people take notice. Go looking for information and within minutes of trusting Google for your education, you’ll find several headlines that might make you look twice. “Big Volcano Ready To Erupt” claims one website. “Yellowstone volcano reactivates, ready to erupt at any moment,” reads another.

Thanks to the trend of online “journalists” hyping the geophysical nature of the park in order to get clicks, Poland is constantly answering inquiries from people who are troubled by the information they find — not just about Yellowstone, but volcanoes around the globe.

“In fact, just this week they put out something about Mount Hood in Oregon. The headline said 2022 is poised to be disastrous,” he said.

The observatory started getting questions “left and right” about what's going on at Mt. Hood. There's nothing going on, Poland said, but because the stories are from sites that sound like reputable sources, people begin to worry. The more they look, the more scary information they find.

“Fear sells,” Poland explains. “Tabloids have discovered that they get a lot of mouse clicks when they put Yellowstone in their headlines.”

There is a cottage industry based on Yellowstone misinformation, Poland said. He considers the fear-mongering to be more of a story than anything happening underneath the caldera. “Some of [the misinformation] I find is just absolutely egregious.” 

One recent claim was that there has been a sudden uplift of the ground around the caldera, with a story asserting a rise in an area near Old Faithful that could be seen in photographs. The article showed two images, supposedly taken from the same place at different times; the images “proved” the hill behind the famous geyser was higher in one image than the other. 

“If you look at the images with any sort of critical eye you can see they are clearly doctored,” Poland said. “I spend a tremendous amount of my time fighting that kind of misinformation. And I get a lot of questions from people like, why aren’t you reporting this?”

The observatory gets a lot of calls. And they work hard to answer all questions, Poland said. Yet, even after attempting to provide answers, people don’t always trust what they hear because it comes from the government, he said.

“If you don't trust the government, I understand. I don’t always trust the government,” Poland said. “But the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory is more than just the [U.S. Geological Survey]. We’re a unique organization — a consortium.”

Nine institutions make up the consortium, including the University of Utah, Montana State University, the National Park Service, the Wyoming State Geological Survey, the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology and the Idaho Geologic Survey. The consortium has a three-pronged mission: first, to provide monitoring and hazard assessments; secondly, to contribute to the scientific understanding of the Yellowstone volcanic and hydrothermal system; and third, to disseminate data, interpretations and accumulated knowledge to the public.

“Are all of these organizations trying to pull the wool over your eyes, especially the people that live right there? I don't think so,” Poland  said.

Data dissemination and communication with the public is where the Wyoming State Geological Survey fits into the broader mission of the consortium, said WSGS geologist James Mauch. The agency recently developed a Geology of Yellowstone interactive map to assist in research, and is available to both the scientific community and the general public. Mauch led the effort.

“There is a wealth of geologic and geospatial information out there related to the Yellowstone system that is all publicly available, but there wasn't a one stop shop for people to access and view that data,” he said Wednesday.

Prior to the map, it was difficult for the public to get their hands on the data and required specialized software and experience with geographic information systems. The WSGS compiled the data into one database and published it as an online map.

“Now it's easier for the public to view and interact with that spatial data. All they need is an internet connection,” he said.

The map allows everyone access to the data and provides a link to download the information free of charge.

“It functions like a data clearinghouse for scientists and researchers who would be interested in Yellowstone,” Mauch said.

It's also useful for outside agencies and the observatory’s consortium partners as a general outreach and communication tool, he said. Mauch has developed a series of online maps for most subjects covered by the WSGS.

Mauch said the WSGS gets some questions from the public about misinformation available on earthquakes and volcanoes.

“We try to clarify a lot of the misinformation out there,” he said, “but Mike [Poland] and the USGS certainly get the brunt of it.”

According to Poland, the biggest news coming out of Yellowstone concerns Steamboat Geyser, the world’s tallest active geyser: It seems the feature is slowing down.

“Maybe Steamboat is starting to lose steam, so to speak,” he quipped.

In 2018, Steamboat erupted 32 times. In both 2019 and 2020 it had 48 eruptions. But in 2021, it only had 20. And the geyser also had the longest pause between eruptive events: 65 days between July and September.

“I think it's sort of an open question as to whether or not Steamboat is winding down,” Poland said. “We know these eruptive periods don't last forever.”

For more information about the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, visit www.usgs.gov/observatories/yvo.

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