AND ANOTHER THING: Wondering about the Ws

Posted 6/14/16

Run differential, Cubs +162.

Red Sox and Nationals combined, +161.

Nationals are 15 games over .500, Red Sox 10, Cubs 25.

So it would seem, at least, that the next two best teams are nearly equal to what the Cubs have done this season, thus …

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AND ANOTHER THING: Wondering about the Ws

Posted

Allow me to get a bit into stat-nerd mode as I try to rationalize what is happening with the team I’ve grown up with.

Run differential, Cubs +162.

Red Sox and Nationals combined, +161.

Nationals are 15 games over .500, Red Sox 10, Cubs 25.

So it would seem, at least, that the next two best teams are nearly equal to what the Cubs have done this season, thus far.

But think about that, the next TWO best teams in the Major Leagues, are nearly equal.

The numbers got to this point Sunday, in lieu of the Cubs trouncing the Braves 13-2, while Boston lost in Minnesota by three and Washington edged the Phillies 5-4.

And yet, for this lifelong, die-hard Cub fan, I am holding my breath. As many of my true blue brethren are.

Why?

Because it all seems so illogical.

Our starting pitching is off the charts, with a combined ERA of 2.33 between Jake Arietta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks.

Now, starting pitching has rarely ever been a strong suit for the Cubs.

Sure, a difference making starter here and there — from Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown in the early part of the 20th century, to the likes of Milt Pappas, Fergie Jenkins and the two ends of Greg Maddux’s career.

But to have all five starting pitchers, all with ERA’s below three, and two below two? Unheard of.

And in a Cubs fan’s mind, in his/her subconscience, it can’t last.

Then there is the offense.

Even after the blowout against Atlanta, the team batting average was .255, good for sixth in the National League.

Then again, their on base percentage is .348, second in the NL.

Now, I’ve been a huge fan of “on base percentage” for a while, and the line by Brad Pitt, playing Billy Beane in the movie “Moneyball” solidified it for me.

“We don’t care how you get on base, just get on base.”

And so they’ve done plenty of that, having walked a league-leading 255 times.

And yet, they have hit 73 home runs, again, sixth in the league, which to me is a good thing.

For too long of my life, it seemed like the answer to the Cubs’ woes was bringing in big boppers and awaiting the big home runs.

Um, they haven’t won a World Series since 1908, haven’t been to a World Series since 1945 — so how do you think that has worked out?

Yet, they have managed to score 322 runs, second in the league.

Combine that, with the insane pitching, and that helps explain the ridiculous record thus far.

And yet, I am left wondering.

Two of the regular starters, Kris Bryant and Addison Russell, are in their second full season in the bigs.

And as any true aficionado knows, the sophomore year is the most difficult, with scouting reports telling veteran pitchers where your weaknesses are.

It is then up to them to make the adjustments to overcome those scouting reports.

Bryant is on pace for about 180 strike outs, with Russell right on his heels.

Two other second-year players, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez have similarly huge holes in their swings and have struck out 61 times, combined, while drawing 20 walks.

Big time free agent Jason Heyward just raised his average to .240 with three hits Sunday, and team “veteran” at age 26, Anthony Rizzo, has seen his average on a rollercoaster this season, from near .300, to the .230s, and after three hits Sunday, up to .264.

And so it seems like a phenomenal pitching staff, which can’t last, and a very haphazard offense have produced this ridiculous record.

Sure, there will be times throughout the summer, when the wind is howling out of Wrigley, where that starting staff may miss their spots and see them deposited on Waveland and/or Sheffield avenues.

Those ERAs may very well spike, and the bats will need to be the bailouts of football-like scores.

But as odd as it seems that their record is so good with the young hitters obviously still trying to figure it out – the question is, how scary could this team be when they do?

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