AMEND CORNER: A fantasy comes true, and it’s embarrassing

Posted 1/8/15

For anyone who deals in opinions and predictions, as I frequently do, it’s inevitable that he will be off the mark on some occasion, sometimes spectacularly. Throw in a few dumb mistakes, such as the time I wrote a column about a composer’s …

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AMEND CORNER: A fantasy comes true, and it’s embarrassing

Posted

One thing I’ve learned while writing this column is that, once in a while, I am going to be embarrassed.

For anyone who deals in opinions and predictions, as I frequently do, it’s inevitable that he will be off the mark on some occasion, sometimes spectacularly. Throw in a few dumb mistakes, such as the time I wrote a column about a composer’s Ninth Symphony and called it his Fifth Symphony throughout the whole essay, and you have plenty of opportunities to blush.

Fortunately, I don’t embarrass very easily. In my many years of speaking, writing and acting, I’ve committed so many blunders that I’ve built up an immunity to embarrassment. Turning my face rosy requires a major faux pas, like the time I made a quick costume change between scenes and played the last scene with my fly open.

Now, by this time, you probably have figured out that I am about to report a situation that I should be embarrassed about, and are wondering when I’m going to get to the point. So here it is.    

Back in 2012, the Republicans were searching for someone to defeat Barack Obama, and during one debate, former Speaker Newt Gingrich said that if we just increased domestic oil production, gasoline prices would drop to $2.50 per gallon. In response, I produced a column entitled “$2.50/gallon gasoline and other fantasies.”

Oops.

I was wrong. Not only was $2.50 gas not a fantasy, gas at $2 and even less was a reality in some markets. It’s a surprising turn of events, and I felt a twinge of embarrassment.

Upon further study, though, that twinge disappeared when I realized that candidate Gingrich was a bit off the mark as well, because increased domestic production was only one of several factors causing the lower prices, and probably wasn’t the main one.

Besides that, while he didn’t say it in so many words, his implication was that it would take a Republican president — presumably himself — to bring about that increased production.

One thing he missed was a rather big drop in demand for gasoline worldwide. China’s economy is slowing down, as are the economies of a number of advanced countries. Some of these nations are slow in recovering from the recession, and there are fears that they may even be slipping back into recession.

Even here in the good old gas-guzzling USA, demand is slowing. More efficient engines and more hybrid cars are part of the reason, and many cities are developing better public transportation.

Some analysts think a culture change is lowering demand. Unlike past generations of young people, who rushed to obtain their drivers licenses as soon as they hit the magic age, research is finding that today’s teens are in no rush to begin driving.

They appear to be spending their money on other activities and types of entertainment, and would rather play baseball on their Wii consoles than go “cruisin’ Main.”

There are other factors as well, including Saudi Arabia’s refusal to cut production in order to keep prices up. Competition from natural gas and other alternative fuels also played a role. Still, taken all together, they all mean I was wrong about $2.50 gas being a fantasy.

But they also mean Gingrich was incorrect when he argued that increased production alone would bring the price down. In fact, other factors, especially a decrease in demand, would do so.

We didn’t need to elect him or any other Republican to make it happen.  

So I’m not embarrassed about my incorrect prediction. In fact, I’m going to issue another one, because I was right about another thing.

As the price of gas falls, oil companies are slowing the development of new wells. We could may actually decrease domestic production, and sooner or later, that will probably cause gas prices to rise, especially as the economy continues to expand.

I believe that sooner or later, a gallon of gasoline will reach $2.50 again, and it probably won’t stop there.

And it won’t matter who the president is.

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