College likely to see enrollment increases, revenue decreases, in next few years

Enrollment at Northwest College is up slightly for the 2015-16 school year compared to last fall’s numbers. 

That’s good news for college administrators, who previously predicted an enrollment decrease of as much as 6 percent. 

“This is the first time since the 2009-10 school year that our enrollment has not drastically decreased,” said NWC Registrar Brad Hammond, in an email last week. 

The 2009-10 school year set an enrollment record for Northwest College. The reason? College administrators, Wyoming Community College Commission leaders and economists in general agree that the record-setting enrollment was, in large part, the result of plummeting oil and natural gas prices and a weak state and local economy. 

Locally, and statewide, many people who previously were employed in the oil and mineral industry were laid off, and they decided to go back to school. The result: Enrollment increased at the University of Wyoming and at all seven community college districts in the state. 

Then, as the economy improved, enrollment declined. 

“Our enrollment spiked during the recession, and as the economy

recovered we saw enrollment dip to more traditional levels,” said NWC President Stefani Hicswa.

In addition, “over the last couple of years we have seen smaller class sizes for graduating seniors which has predictably impacted our enrollment,” Hicswa said.

With oil prices now dropping again, it looks like that pattern is repeating. Enrollment at Northwest is up very slightly, Hammond said. 

Hicswa added, “With respect to the recent changes in the economy, we are predicting our enrollment will decline to stabilize as a result this fall. Our new student applications and pre-registration numbers are coming in almost the same as where we were last year at this time.” 

In addition, “data shows high school class sizes increasing over the next five to 10 years. We expect our enrollment will increase as a result,” Hicswa said.

But, just as before, it is likely that Northwest, along with Wyoming’s other community colleges, experience enrollment increases while also dealing with revenue shortfalls. 

Wyoming’s college districts get much of their revenue from the state. But, unlike K-12 schools, the Wyoming Constitution provides no annual revenue guarantee for community colleges. With the state’s mineral revenue declining, state agencies — including the Wyoming Community College Commission — are bracing for likely cuts next year. 

Former NWC finance director warned the NWC Board of Trustees during preliminary budget discussions earlier this year that the college needs to be prepared for likely cuts in state funding. 

Additional funding for Northwest College comes from Park County property taxes, and that revenue is predicted to decline next year as well, Flom warned.

Lisa Watson, the college’s new vice president for administrative affairs, has repeated those warnings. 

Despite those economic challenges, Hicswa said Northwest is prepared and will be able to handle any enrollment increases.

“We have capacity in our classes and will be able to serve anyone who walks in the door,” she said. “We have structured Northwest College to respond to the needs of our students, whether they are living on campus, taking classes online or involved in our concurrent enrollment program. The faculty and staff thrive in that kind of environment.”

Hicswa said the college is geared up to meet students’ ongoing needs, regardless of when they occur. 

“It is important to note that we have regular credit classes that start mid-semester, and non-credit classes that start throughout the semester, for those in transition that need to retrain or upgrade their job skills during the year,” she said. “We know that economic cycles do not necessarily follow the traditional school calendar.”

Enrollment at Northwest College appears to be stabilizing after falling for several years. 

The following information was provided by NWC Registar Brad Hammond. 

As of July 24, there were 1,274 students enrolled for the fall semester, with a slightly higher full-time equivalence of 1,332. Those numbers will change as more students register or withdraw. 

A year ago, as of July 24, 2014, NWC had 1,325 students enrolled with a full-time equivalence of 1,269. Final fall 2014 enrollment grew to 1,719 students with an FTE of 1,605. 

Full-time equivalence is determined by adding the total number of credit hours for which students are enrolled and dividing that number by 12, the number of credits necessary for full-time enrollment status. 

The fact that the FTE number is greater than the number of students means that a portion of the enrolled students are taking more than 12 credit hours. The number of FTEs determines a large portion of the college’s state funding each year. 

Historically, enrollment at Northwest has fallen each year since 2009 until stabilizing this fall. 

Total fall enrollment in 2010 was 2,173 students, with an FTE of 2,131. 

In fall 2011, there were 2,145 students enrolled with an FTE of 1,974. 

In fall 2012, enrollment dropped to 2,136, with an FTE of 1,926. 

In fall 2013, there were 1,973 students enrolled with an FTE of 1,753. 

Hammond said the number of students and FTEs remained about the same until 2009, meaning that students took an average of about 12 credit hours.

But, beginning in 2009, “FTE has been notably lower than the headcount (with the exception of fall 2010). 

“This is due to the increasing trend of students taking part-time loads instead of full-time loads,” Hammond said.